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Azerbaijan Climate Change and Disaster Risk

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Azerbaijan Climate Change

Azerbaijan Climate Background

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The historical climatic data background for Azerbaijan’s present climatology (1991-2020). If you want to make the most of the data at your disposal and anticipate future climate scenarios and projected change, you need to have a firm grasp of the state of the climate right now.

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Current climatology data can be represented graphically in a number of ways, including those that highlight regional variation, the seasonal cycle, and time series. Annual and seasonal information can be analyzed. The data are aggregated at the national level by default, but you can switch to the sub-national level by clicking on a sub-national unit within a country.


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The climate of Azerbaijan is extremely diverse, with nine of the world’s eleven climate zones represented across the country.

There are significant variations in average annual temperature and precipitation across the country’s several biomes, from semi-arid zones in the country’s center and east (containing the capital, Baku) to temperate zones in the north to continental zones in the west to tundra zones.

The climate in the central lowlands and along the Caspian Sea coast is drier and hotter, while in the more mountainous regions of Azerbaijan, precipitation levels are higher and average temperatures are lower. Summers in Azerbaijan can get quite warm, especially in the lowlands, while winters are mild.

Monthly average temperatures in Azerbaijan vary widely depending on latitude and elevation. During the peak months of July and August, temperatures in Baku and other areas of the east and southeast reach around 27 degrees Celsius, while in portions of the mountainous north and west, they remain between 15 and 20 degrees Celsius.

Similar to how the western and northern regions of Azerbaijan have monthly averages of 5oC to 10oC during the winter (December to February), Baku experiences milder averages of 3oC to 4oC.

Azerbaijan Climate Change and Disaster Risk
Azerbaijan Climate Change and Disaster Risk


Azerbaijan experiences bimodal monthly rainfall, with average levels exceeding 40 mm per month from April through June, and again in October. May and June are when the north and west of Azerbaijan receive the most precipitation, sometimes more than 100 millimeters.

Trending the Azerbaijan Climate Change

Past, present, and future climatic trends must always be interpreted in light of the inherent variability of the climate system. The term “climate variability” is used here to describe the normal “spectrum of variability” for a given climatic variable, such as temperature or precipitation.

It’s possible that the connected atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system’s own, quasi-random internal variability is to blame for this type of natural variation (as weather variability is drawn out over many years). The El Nio–Southern Oscillation is a major driver of climate variability, which fits the bill of a natural cyclical cause.

Aside from human intervention, periodic “forcing” events in nature, such as massive volcanic eruptions, can also play a role. Internal climate variability is a catch-all term describing the effects of both internal and external natural variables on global temperatures.

This climatic variation within an individual is constant, albeit its intensity may increase or decrease with time. A climatology should be viewed as a mean with fluctuation around it. In some regions and for some variables, such as at the high latitudes, annual variation can be rather substantial.

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and variations in atmospheric concentrations (i.e., CO2, methane), in addition to changes in land surface and aerosol, exert a different forcing on the climate system than natural variability.

Looking for signs of climate change requires isolating the effects of human activity from those of the Earth’s inherent unpredictability. That signal may appear as either a gradual shift in the general pattern or a more abrupt shift in the size of the fluctuations.

There are significant differences in variability, patterns, and significance of change over the last 70 years, 50 years, and 30 years, and this page provides three topics to investigate and comprehend these differences. Its purpose is to provide more context to the data presented in climatology articles (Current Climatology- Climatology tab).

All three parts discuss potential facets of variability that need to be taken into account. The offered variables represent a subset of the whole indicator catalog for the sake of user friendliness. In order to extract additionally the daily variability, data on this page is extracted from the ERA5 reanalysis (here utilized at 0.5o x 0.5o resolution).

Azerbaijan Extreme Weather

When compared to average precipitation, extreme precipitation events can feature opposite trends and bigger shifts.

Second, as the temperature of the Earth rises, the air’s capacity to carry moisture increases dramatically, raising the prospect of more intense downpours. This means that extreme occurrences are more likely to occur, which might have a detrimental impact on flood risk.

The trend toward higher rainfall can be reversed, and return periods of large events can grow, rather than decrease, only in regions where precipitation occurrence decreases dramatically.

Azerbaijan Climate Change and Disaster Risk

Earthquakes, drought, and flooding pose serious threats to Azerbaijan’s people. According to the GFDRR Disaster Risk Profile for Azerbaijan, an earthquake with a 250-year return period would cost the country $40 billion (71% of GDP) and affect 3 million people (34% of the population) (GFDRR, 2016).

Forest fires, such as the 12 that burned through 59 ha of forest in 2014 because of drought, are not uncommon (Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, 2015). There is a consistent problem with flooding in the country, which causes erosion and soil degradation. Each year, it is predicted to cost Azerbaijan’s economy between $18 and $25 million.

It is now widely understood that climate change poses a serious threat to attempts to satisfy the expanding demands of the most vulnerable populations, and that this threatens the effectiveness of disaster management efforts.

Due to the nature of catastrophe risk management, precise, accurate, and easily accessible data are necessities. Understanding the frequency, impact, and occurrence of natural calamities is made possible by the data offered here.

Coastal Risk

Both the melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets, which adds water to the ocean, and the warming of the water in the oceans, which leads to expansion and therefore greater volume, contribute directly to the rise of the global mean sea level as a result of the planet’s overall warming.

Since 1880, the average sea level has risen between 210 and 240 millimeters (mm), with almost a third of the increase occurring in the previous two and a half decades. The current rate of increase is roughly 3 mm each year.

Natural fluctuations in area winds and ocean currents cause regional variations, which can last anywhere from a few days to a few decades. Uplift (for example, persistent rebound from Ice Age glacier weight) or subsidence of the earth, changes in water levels owing to water extraction or other water management, and even the effects from local erosion can all have a significant role at the regional scale.

Coastal ecosystems are also put under strain by rising sea levels, which puts additional strain on the shoreline itself.

Many municipal and agricultural water sources and natural ecosystems are threatened by saltwater intrusions because they contaminate freshwater aquifers. Since there is a significant lag in achieving an equilibrium, sea level will continue to rise for a while as the planet continues to heat up.

The rate of melting glaciers and ice sheets may become increasingly important in determining the rate of the increase, which in turn will depend on the rate of future carbon dioxide emissions and future global warming.


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