The official start of the Atlantic tropical season is June 1, each year. Earlier this year, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) began considering if the Atlantic Hurricane season should also begin on May 15, given the number of early-season storms in recent years.
The East Pacific tropical season already starts on May 15, and the basin has already had one named tropical system, Tropical Storm Andres.
Now, AccuWeather meteorologists are shifting their focus on the Atlantic Basin, watching the waters surrounding the Bahamas, southern Florida and Cuba.”It is possible that the environmental conditions could be just right in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico northwest Caribbean Sea and southwest Atlantic Ocean for a tropical or subtropical depression to develop,” explained AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller.
In the Atlantic basin, tropical storms that develop before the official start of the season and early in the season tend to form closer to the U.S. The relatively shallow water in the Gulf of Mexico and along the Southeast coast of the U.S. is able to heat up faster than deeper water located in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean.Warm waters and light winds, are two of the main factors necessary for an organized tropical system to develop.
“Low pressure could form along a front near southern Florida or the Bahamas late this week or next weekend, and if so, it may strengthen. However, chances for tropical development at this time are still quite low,” metrologist said.It is a semi-regular occurrence to see tropical development in the Atlantic basin before the start of the season. In fact, last year’s hyperactive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season produced two tropical storms: Arthur and Bertha. This was the first occurrence of two pre-season tropical storms in the Atlantic since 2016, but over the past six hurricane seasons, seven tropical storms have formed between May 15 and June 1.
Even without an organized tropical system late this week, the weather pattern may favor some rain for parts of the region that could really use the rain.
According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, portions of the Florida Peninsula, mainly south of Lake Okeechobee, is abnormally dry with some spotty reports of moderate drought.
Additionally, Nassau in the Bahamas has only had about half of it’s normal rainfall since April 1. The Bahamas Department of Meteorology put the northwestern portion of the islands, as well as the western half of Cuba, on a “drought watch” back in March.
“Regardless of development, some much-needed rainfall could target both southern Florida and the Bahamas,” Miller said.
Elsewhere across the basin, tropical development is not expected in the coming week. In fact, a massive plume of Saharan dust emerged off of the African coast earlier this week. This plume of dust is nearly a month ahead of the average pace, and it could be seen in satellite images spreading westward across a large corridor of the Atlantic basin.
reference -Accuweather
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